Saturday, 31 October 2015

Can Osim Turnaround its Fortunes?

Osim is synonymous with its massage chairs. Besides the massage chair business, it holds other retail brands as well such as GNC and TWG Tea. Interestingly, the major market and revenue contributor to Osim is North Asia, to be exact China.

Signs of trouble in China?

While the Chinese Government has painted a moderately strong outlook on China, Osim’s result is showing otherwise. 9M current FY results has reported an overall decline of 12% revenue and a 44.4% fall in profits. This shows how cyclical Osim’s products are and the exposure it has to the China market. While its share prices have fallen to S$1.36, the question now is: Is Osim an undervalued buy with its growth story seemingly over.

With the slowing Chinese market, Osim has reported the third consecutive double digit decline in sales. While the company is still generating positive cash flow with a strong balance sheet, I still think Osim is rather too high a price. At an estimated EPS of 6 cents (and same amount in forecasted cash flow generation); $1.36 signals that the company is selling at about 22x PE. With its neutral growth story, I do find a PE/P/FCF of 22x as high.

Furthermore, I am not sanguine on Osim’s strategic investment in Trek 2000. There are many better companies out there for strategic investment and diversification. 


In its commentary, Osim has signaled it is positive in sustaining its no1 position in the Chinese market. While I believe that is true, being no1 in a slowing market is not a positive as well. It remains to be seen how will Osim turn around its fortunes, especially when it has an upcoming convertible bond to redeem. 

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