Saturday, 18 January 2025

Why Former Sabana Director Chan Wai Kheong Is Making Things Hard For Sabana REIT Unitholders, And Not Proposing Constructive Motions for All to Benefit

Last Friday on 17 January 2025, there is another turn of event in the Sabana "saga". Former Sabana Director Chan Wai Kheong has rallied support of at least 10% (suspicion is supported by the Hong Kong company of "ESR Group") of shares owned to request for an EGM to do a price discovery process with view to achieve the sale of all or majority of Sabana Assets.

While I am not a unitholder of Sabana REIT, the proposal put forth by this former director of a REIT shows the director himself has very little knowledge of the happenings in the REIT industry or just trying to make things difficult for the new internal manager without the aim of monetising the assets as per what he claims which will benefit all unitholders in his letter.

Case History of Manulife US REIT- Instead of a Price Discovery Process, Requisite for a Dispostion Mandate Anchored on the Independent Valuers Valuation

Last year, Manulife US REIT voted for a Disposition Mandate, it was a straightforward process where the REIT manager is allowed to sell any property if it was at least 85% of the valued price calculated by the independent valuers. This was to allow for the quick monetisation of assets to protect unitholders' interest.

Therefore, what Chan Wai Kheong could have requested in order for Sabana Unitholders to  benefit are:

(i) Request for a disposition mandate, 

(ii) Set a timeline for the sales of properties, 

(iii) Mandate a TnC that each sale should not deviate no less than X%, e.g. 10% less than the Independent Valuers valuation of each Sabana's property.

A disposition mandate will result in a faster sales process because prospective buyers are anchored to a valuation report done by an independent Singapore valuer and this report is updated annually as per Singapore's law. It is much faster than a price discovery process put forth under Chan Wai Kheong's.

What Assumption Was Made

In my above thoughts, I had presumed the valuers of Savills and C&W of Singapore had done their valuation with independence and professionalism. Therefore Savills and C&Ws' year end report can be relied on as reference and is not fraudulent.

If Chan Wai Kheong is disputing this fact and hence is opting for a price discovery, he should come out and say in his professional view Savills and C&W of Singapore are committing flawed calculations in their reports and report this to the Singapore Institute of Surveyors and Valuers. This is something he as a former director of the REIT should know. Otherwise based on his past experience, he would be aware that the independent year end reports can be trusted, relied on and therefore proceed for a faster disposal process via a disposition mandate.

This will quickly help unitholders to realise the value of Sabana assets and protect their wealth. Alternatively as i have said in my second paragraph, he is just making things hard with no intent of helping unitholders and plans to add more roadblocks to lengthen the internatlisation process which has gone on for 1+ year. This internalisation process had been hit by roadblock one after another such as by a stubborn trustee of a Hong Kong Bank's (HSBC) subsidary who had to be overruled by the Singapore Court for a simple matter. 

All these have been resulting in undue loss in value for unitholders.

Saturday, 11 January 2025

Credit Card Spending Strategy for 2025- Using Maybank Family and Friend Credit Card

As someone who loves to stretch my dollar, my spending has revolved around using 3 credit cards to chase both air miles and cashback, it was a good strategy which enabled me to get free air flights on premium seats on SIA for the past 2 years after COVID. This was how my spending revolved:

Nerfing of Many Credit Card Benefits

If 2025 is anything to remember, it is that many banks have Nerf'd their credit card benefits. HSBC revolution was the worst where 2024 started with the removal of paywave earning 4 miles per dollar (which forced me to rotate my UOB's lady card each quarter by quarter to plan how I would spend/eat). 

Standard Chartered Bank has now too moved to kill off the generous 6% cashback (with no minimum spend) I was obtaining for my EZ Link and Ya Kun Coffee buys; while I could still earn a generous 8% cashback for EZ link and Ya Kun if i spent $800 per month, it is unlikely I will be drinking myself silly on Ya Kun Coffee per month

New Main Card- Maybank Family and Friend Credit Card

The benefits of Maybank Family and Friend has been around for a few years. It's 8% cashback for chosen categories with $800 minimum spend per month is generous and has always been a close contender for me to go full cashback. However, I have not consolidated my spending to this card, because I had struggled to charge $800 spend per month on credit cards. So why have I decided to move to Maybank Credit Card for 2025?

Singapore Inflation is High that I Can Meet The Target

To qualify for the 8% cashback, Maybank requires users to spend $800 per month. By a stroke of luck, the constant inflation in Singapore has increased my cost of living that it now hits Maybank's minimum spend!

My grocery expenditure forms the largest part of spending because I would buy items and cook my own meals for work. While doing my usual shopping in recent months, I have noticed the bill has increased quite a bit while the purchased items has remained unchanged; hence due to inflation, my expenditure has increased quite a bit. Furthermore with the public transport hike, 2025 spending now moves close to the $800 mark

My plan now is that some front loading to purchase NTUC Vouchers has to be done to hit the $800 minimum spend per month. And for a month or two, I would not charge grocery to the card but instead charge for my flight expenses (since I am now going to full cashback, I will not have the miles to fly for free).

With a consolidated spending on primarily one credit card, I am able to track my spending with greater accuracy, let's see if I am able to utilise Maybank's Cashback reward effectively to maximise my daily spends. 

Monday, 23 December 2024

End of Year 2024 Update: Buying more Business Trust and REIT For Dividend

As said in my past posts, it is likely I would purchase more Asia Pay TV Trust (APTT). I did just that.

Other purchases were UnitedHampshire REIT and Yangzijiang Financial. They are strong convictions of mine that will provide good dividend and returns to investors. 

Alibaba is becoming a smaller and smaller proportion of my holdings because I do not think President Xi Jinping will be able to instil much confidence to the economy given his poor economic policies in the past and Trump US tariffs on China. 

Portfolio is Now a 5+% Dividend Generator

Starting from the end of next quarter, I will be logging the dividend I receive. I am confident the current portfolio is of a high dividend yielder and of stable calibre, in terms of yield it is better than Singapore property bets. Purely on UnitedHampshire US REIT dividend, it will beat any Singapore property (I am already up 5% in 2 months, if any property agent still wishes to challenge).

2025

An important event for 2025 will be if APTT successfully renews its debt for a margin of 2.0%-2.5% from Taiwan Interbank. As of now, its loans have a margin of about 2% from Taiwan's TAIBOR rate. I expect a slight widening which will affect casflow. Too high a margin for its debt will hurt dividend. But as long as APTT effective cost of interest remains at 3.8% or below (currently it is at 3.3%), the trust will continue to be a 13% dividend yielder.

The second event I look towards is PRIME US REIT resumption of dividend. The US Office submarkets have not recovered and vacancies are still increasing. I expect property devaluation to still happen.

This will push PRIME US REIT's leverage above the current ratio of 46%. I expect US commercial REITs to report about 5% decline in value. Not too shabby given China is faring worse. Nevertheless, this will affect PRIME US REIT in terms of leverage and if the submarkets are not recovering fast enough, the REIT will not be able backfill vacancies to increase income and give more dividends to unitholders. I am hoping for a quick improvement in vacancy rates in PRIME US REIT's submarkets so that more dividend are rewarded to Unitholders. Targetting for a 2 US cents annual dividend to be restored starting from 1H2025 results.

Sunday, 22 December 2024

OUE REIT Sold Its China Property at a 20% Loss to End 2023 Valuation, Are Assets Worth What it is Reported?

OUE REIT has sold its remaining China property, Lippo Plaza for RMB $1.917 Billion 

Interestingly, this is at a 20% discount from its last year end valuation of RMB$2.4 Billion. Unitholders of OUE has seen a 20% loss from the sale. 

Are OUE REITs Assets Valued Correctly?

This seems to be one question investors should start to ask. While it is indeed true that most REITs are valued below book value, on SGX, OUE REIT is valued at quite a distance from its NAV. At a 60 cents NAV, OUE REIT trades at 27 cents, representing a price to NAV of 0.45. That is a very wide discount. 

As the saying goes: on balance sheet, companies tend to value their assets as fully as possible and liabilities as little as possible. This could be what is happening at Capitaland Ascott REIT disposal where Capitaland has disposed its Ascott REIT shares so that liabilities can disappear from Capitaland balance sheet.

Back to OUE REIT's balance sheet, this puts into question the true worth of OUE's Office and Hotel assets. Of course, REITs pay and hire their own valuers to value and as a result of this conflict of interest, it is inevitable the hired valuers will juice up property values as high as possible, otherwise they wont be hired again next year.

Personally, I find OUE's valuation of OUE Downtown office for $930 million a little too optimistic. The property has a useful lifespan of 42 years remaining with a revenue of $48.8 million (which means net income is about $36.6 million). For an annual inflow of $36.6 million before interest expenses and 42 years, factoring 02 rounds of refurbishment capex needed, $930 million is a very optimistic number. The valuers for OUE downtown must be very optimistic of rental escalations happening at the downtown area.

A call to Call OUE's Bluff or Encashing Proftiably

Based on valuation, OUE REIT has a 0.45-0.50 price to book value. This means if the property is liqudated now at the valuer's valuation of end 2023, investors can nett about 90% in gains, excluding the approximate 7% in annual dividend yield.

In the minutes of 2024's AGM 2023, a unitholder (minutes termed him as "Unitholder A") had voiced out this discrepancy in valuation and a solution was for OUE REIT to sell off its property portfolio so that unitholders will benefit. 

I think it seems to be a sound solution. If indeed all its remaining Singapore properties are worth its value in writing by cashflow discounting and valuation of hotels per key, unit holders will gain tremendously. The valuer's usage of discount rate for its office properties at 3.5% is way lower than OUE REIT's cost of debt at 4.5%-4.9%, hence selling off its office properties can benefit the REIT.

The sale of Lippo Plaza has shown OUE REIT's valuers might be "smoking weed" when performing the maths. It was a discount of 20%. If 20% is applied on its entire portfolio, this translates to 0.65 times of the price to net book value, assuming a complete sale of assets. So it might be good for unitholders to encash on OUE REIT when the property market is at a party high. To be fair, I do think 0.7 times of the net book value can be achieved; an upside of about 55%.

OUE has 02 properties (OUE Downtown, Hilton Singapore Orchard) running low on its title deed leases. The effects of lease decay is going to hurt the REIT greatly. These 02 assets form 40% of OUE REITs value and therefore should be encashed soon to avoid financial disaster.

Unitholders of OUE REIT should sound this out urgently. The market has already seemed to price OUE REIT at such a discount knowing these information. Pherhaps OUE Unitholders should call out the bluff, even if they are wrong and the properties fetch the reported values, unitholders enjoy massive upside from current share prices. It is a very good time to call out OUE REIT's hand in this game of poker. It is a "Head I win, tails you lose" moment for anyone who buys into the current market price and call the bluff.

<Not Vested at the Moment, But May Consider Purchasing after doing purchases on APTT and other REITS)

Wednesday, 18 December 2024

Genting Singapore has a Management Problem and a Change In Direction Can Improve Share Prices by 60%

Genting Singapore has one of the strangest balance sheet structure for a Casino Operator. Casino operations is a capital expenditure heavy business with the need to build hotels and casino physically on a piece of land. Across the world, most casino operators employ leverage to ensure optimal shareholder return. 

Genting Berhad, Genting Singapore's Parent, employs leverage for its Malaysia operations as well for its Genting highlands casino and resort business. Similarly, in the recent expansion, Marina Bay Sands is using debt, borrowing at a low interest rate to fund its expansion.

Terrible Management of Genting Singapore is Hurting Shareholders

Too much cash (SGD$3.6 billion) is sitting on the balance sheet of Genting Singapore with reported interest income of 3% interest yield. On the other hand, Genting Singapore as a business makes about 7% in earnings yield based on current share prices. 

Genting Singapore only returns 60% of the cash it generates as dividends and keeps 40% for future expansion plans (about SGD$380 million). With a growing cash pile and only a few billion in expansion plans. It makes sense to use the excess cash in the balance sheet to conduct buybacks vis-a-vis parking the cash in the bank. 

Genting Singapore can conduct share buybacks up to $1 to $1.10 and it will still be value accretive to shareholders as compared to the option of letting the money sit in Singapore bank fixed deposits.

If the management of Genting Singapore argues the cash is set aside for future expansion plans, the question is why should the money be left sitting it down. Singapore is a country with easy access to capital and many companies including MBS has been able to obtain loans at 3+% interest. Temasek companies such as Seatrium are getting loans at the low 2% level, even Suntec and Fraser Hospitality utilises debt at a region of 4% interest. Furthermore with its cash generation ability, the amount borrowed will be repaid in a few years. The expansion plan will take 06 more years, Genting Singapore would have accumulated SGD$2 billion by then to fund. And the another 10 years to fully repay it. Again, other casino operators in the world employ leverage to fund and deliver optimal shareholder returns.

Genting Singapore shareholders should demand that the SGD$3 billion in cash be used for a stronger sharebuyback to buy back shares up to $1-1.10 level at next AGM as opposed to letting the money sit in fixed deposits. Such a move will benefit shareholders because the capital allocation will result in improved earnings per shares and asset value to all shareholders.

Monday, 16 December 2024

$6/monthly phone plan, probably the cheapest non-senior plan

For the past few months, Singaporeans might have seen the introduction of a new teleco called "eight telecom"

It has an $8/monthly plan which comes with 228gb data. To pay for the monthly plan, users have to top up credits into their eight telecom account.

Individuals can buy from shopee a $8 credit top up and 'hack' on shopee's fabulous 12 noon discount voucher to get $2 off from the purchase.

Steps

Step1: Collect a "50% coins max 200 coins Cashback" shopee voucher which is available 12 noon daily under daily vouchers.

Step2: Buy $8 credit from this shop (screenshot below). Then apply the voucher you had collected under 'platform voucher', next use/redeem any available shopee coins to offset the purchase. 

Step3: under 'message for seller', please insert the mobile number you wish to top up to (aka your mobile phone number)

So there you have it, shopee is helping us subsidize eight teleco mobile plan. I am definitely happy for their cash burning ways!

Saturday, 14 December 2024

Outlook for 2025: Inflation has Tamed, Interest Rates Will be Lower, Sing Dollar is No Longer Attractive

Worldwide, central banks has started to cut interest rates. Main reason is that in Europe, the economic condition is not good. Firstly, european manufacturing is weak because they cannot compete against China, Second, Europe is suffering the same fate as USA where there is an oversupply of commercial real estate (and for them residential as well), construction has slowed. Two pillars of economy are down.

In Singapore, inflation has been tamed as well and MAS has announced no change of policy (which means no longer a gradual appreciation of the Sing Dollar). This means we will no longer see the strengthening of Sing Dollar.

How Should Singapore Investors Position

Firstly, I do not see any much strengthening of the Sing dollar moving forth. Putting my neck on the line, the USD/SGD will breach the 1.35 mark with US dollar starting to strengthen. The lowering of interest rates will benefit Malaysia as well and we could see the Sing Dollar/MYR going below 3.20. This is because Malaysia's borrowing cost will be reduced reflecting a stronger economy. Singapore is not a debt laden economy so global interest rates does not affect its financing cost much.

Lower Interest Rates Overseas will Benefit Those who buy Overseas Assets

In all, investors should think of rotating to foreign currency and buying assets overseas. Relatively, overseas assets have been giving better returns and with the potential strengthening story, holding Sing Dollar may not be good. I have been saying that REIT assets overseas are giving close to two times what Singapore REITs give and they are of better balance sheet strength; just look at LINK REIT of HK and Utdhampshire US REIT on SGX. 

And now with interest rates lowering, the financing cost of overseas REITs will fall faster than that of local REITs. What happens is that overseas REIT will start to report much higher income and in turn dividends.

Personally, I believe United Hampshire US REIT will start to increase their dividends to about 4.4 US cents in future annual dividend. It is in the essential services sector and has quite a secure income inflow. It is a strong recommendation in my view and should be a stock in any Singapore dividend investor portfolio. Investment income for life have done a good analysis on it and I will not steal his thunder. Do read it up on here. 

No SGD Currency Appreciation makes Local Property Less Attractive

Singapore property wise, with the lack of currency appreciation and increasing taxes on properties in Singapore, to foreign investors, owning a Singapore property may not be attractive at all. Expect prices not to go as high as previous times.

In short, Singapore investors should look towards owning foreign currency denominated assets. Firstly, their returns are better and secondly, they face the benefit of a currency upside. 

Walk the Talk

With my outlook of 2025, I am no longer holding much Sing Dollar, until USD/SGD reaches 1.38, I will be holding my money in US dollar. The added benefit is that the US dollar deposits here are 3-4 %, higher than T bills. If one opens a multi currency account, keep money in USD and then place USD Fixed deposit. More interest is earned. There is an arbitage opportunity now to earn more yield overseas with an added benefit of currency appreciation.